NATIONAL CENSUS 2024 INDEPENDENT REPORT

AN INDEPENDENT ANALYSIS OF 2000, 2011 AND 2024 CENSUS FUNDING SUPPORT

DESPITE THE LOW FUNDING FINALS RESULTS ANTICIPTED BY JUNE 2025

The Pacific Guardian

Port Moresby

09th March, 2025

(TRUTH BE TOLD FROM AN INDEPENDENT ANALYSIS)

Any form of statistical collection is often resource intensive which requires a lot of planning, decision making and a very well synchronized coordination structure for funds transfers, communication, logistics, publicity & awareness, training, and reporting to and from the NSO HQ and the provinces.

The National Statistical Office conducted a major data collection exercise through the 5th National Population Census last year. Most of its operations were funded by the National Government. Some provincial administrations also provided funds for the population data collection exercise, although reports on the use of their funds are yet to be received from them.

Census 2024 in a nutshell like all other censuses, the 2024 census followed established statistical processes and international practices in collecting the population and basic demographic information. In compliance with these processes, the NSO developed a “comprehensive and cost-effective work plan” that had various phases with distinct outcomes. Upon the completion of each phase, the ensuing phase was required to progress from specific starting date and end on a scheduled date. It was indeed tedious and cumbersome that required some activities to be done concurrently with other phases’ activities as time was limited.  

It was also inherently critical that an effective Coordination Structure was established to oversee various activities. The structure was developed in a cascading form where director, national and regional coordinators were from the NSO HQ. Provincial, district and LLG coordinators including ward supervisors were from the provinces. The ward supervisors supervised data collectors/enumerators. Funding and/or payments, census materials, various levels of trainings, logistics, security, accommodation and so on followed this structure including reporting to and from the NSO HQ and the provinces.

The 2024 Census also had its fair share of challenges and issues; some were administrative while others were natural or man-made which had a drag on the plan. Addressing some of these challenges were very difficult not only due to limited funding resources but also of the visibility of the actual enumeration exercise. The NSO coordinators could not be present in all the LLGs and wards but depended largely on the provincial census coordinators who were nominated by their respective provincial administrations who required to coordinate and supervise their respective provinces. There were also on-the-ground NSO staff that assisted the provinces.

2024 Census Preparations and Enumeration Dates

Most of the preparations started in 2023 and into the first two quarters of 2024. (A separate report will be provided detailing the preparations and the actual enumerations.) The reference night for the enumeration start date was approved by NEC for 17th June 2024. It was set for two weeks, however due to many challenges and issues along the way a lot of provinces started late. All enumeration exercises, nevertheless ended on the 16th of December 2024. Field evaluations are still continuing and a final figure is expected in June after all the statistical processes are completed. The final population figures for 2024 will be produced in a shorter period (one year) compared to two or more years for previous censuses.

Cost to count a person in 2000, 2011 and the 2024 Censuses

The table below shows the Actual Appropriations for the three (3) censuses mentioned above. The table also provides information on the total population enumerated, population growth rates and the costs of enumerating one person (amount spent per person to be enumerated) in each of the censuses.

Census year 2002                      

Actual Appropriation                PGK145, 000,000

Population Enumerated           PGK5, 200, 000

Population Growth rates%       2.40

Cost per person                         27.88  

Cost Increase/Decrease%      Base

Census year 2011                      

Actual Appropriation                PGK165, 000,000

Population Enumerated           PGK7, 200, 000

Population Growth rates%       2.70

Cost per person                         22.92

Cost Increase/Decrease%      -21.68

Census year 2024                      

Actual Appropriation                PGK150, 000,000

Population Enumerated           PGK9, 600, 000

Population Growth rates%       2.20

Cost per person                         .15.63 

Cost Increase/Decrease%      -78.46

*      Actual appropriations are found in the Government’s Annual Budget Books for each census year

Compared to the last census (2011), the funding for 2024 had declined by K15 million while population increased by 2.2% and the amount spent to enumerate one person declined by 46.67%. When compared to 2000 census “cost per person enumerated” to 2024 census is 78.45% less.

What it means in monetary terms is that NSO spent only K15.63 to enumerate one person in 2024 while in 2000 and 2011, it spent K27.88 and K22.92 in the respective censuses. It other words, the previous censuses were very costly than the 2024 census.

NSO carefully strategized the 2024 census plans to cut back costs significantly by over 60%, on average, in terms of comparing values to the two past censuses to count a person.

·         Note here that in-depth explanations and analysis for the 2024 Census population coverage, the population number and its rate is independently explained in the 2024 Population Census Final Figures Report.

Measuring relative values of conducting the 2024 Census

There are many ways but complicated to compare the “worth” or “value” of an amount that was provided or used some years ago compared to current. It depends on what is measured, either a commodity, income or a project.

For the purpose of doing a basic analysis on the price movements and the impact it has on the value of the funds that were allocated for projects, the consumer price index (CPI): an index number produced by NSO to measure household price movements is used. A ”conversion factor” is often used for the CPI to compare values of the same from the past to the current and vice versa which is defined as the “value that adjust prices to account for differences in markets, goods or services”.

The table below shows comparative values of the census funds allocated amidst the global and domestic inflations in the last 24 year-period. It shows the 2000 census allocation compared to current and vice versa from 2024 allocation to what the value would have been 24 years ago (2000 census).

Kina to US$ conversion factors

Periods 

2000 to 2011     PGK2.0517

2011 to 2024     PGK1.7214

2000 to 2024     PGK3.5317

Census Year 2000

Appropriation value

Kina Value compared to Census

2000     PGK145, 000, 000

            PGK145, 000, 000

PGK80. 421, 114 (less in 2011)               -105%

            PGK42, 472, 464(less in 2024)                - 42%

2011     PGK165, 000, 000

            PGK297, 500

            PGK165, 000, 000 (less in 2011)             +105%

            PGK87, 137, 376(less in 2024)               

2024     PGK150, 000, 000

            PGK150, 000. 000

            PGK512, 096, 500 (less in 2011) +253%

             PGK284, 031, 00(less in 2024)               +72%

* Source: NSO consumer price index annual conversion factors

The K145 million allocated for 2000 census to count only 5.2 million people would cost K511.9 million had we counted them in 2024. Similarly, had we used the same strategy used by NSO for the 2024 census with a budget of K150 million, we would have spent only less than K42.5 million instead of K145 million in 2000.

From the conversions over the last 24 years, generally the prices of goods and services have increased by more than 250%. It means, the K145 million in 2000 is now (2024) worth approximately K512 million.

Key Comparison points for major events

There are many major national events various Governments have undertaken over the years. Some key characteristics of these events are listed as follows:

1)    National Population Census – an event that occurs every 10 years governed by the Statistical Services Act to enumerate every single person; boy, girl, man, woman who are either citizen or non-citizen living in the country at a particular point in time.

It is a mandatory requirement that NSO must go to every household, by all means across the breadth and width of the country and count them. NSO officers go to count them, people do not come to NSO for them to be counted.

2)    National Identification – a daily operation that requires every individual to be registered and given NID Cards for those who are over 18 years, currently located at various designated locations. Only a handful do mobile registrations. It has a user requirement that necessitates every person to be registered.

3)    Elections – conducted every five years around the country. Only persons who are 18 years old and above has democratic right to participate in this event. The location of participation is restricted to only gazetted areas. It is not a mandatory requirement for them to participate though the event itself is a constitutional requirement. Nobody cares whether you cast your vote or not.

4)    Hosting of APEC Meeting – Only for regional leaders in the areas demarcated by the waters and geography of Asia and the Pacific. May have economic benefits not only for PNG but for the member countries.

5)    South Pacific Games – A sporting event for the host country. To show sportsmanship and friendship among the countries in the South Pacific.

Costs to undertake or host such events are monumental.

Under all prevailing circumstance NSO had done its best to deliver Census 2024. Our appreciation to the MARAPE-ROSSO government which has made it happen to count our populace. Team Leader Minister Masere, a first time Minister is appreciated in his effort to deliver. And in summary:

1)    The comparative analysis highlights how the NSO maximized the use of funds and reduced unnecessary costs. It gives an overview of the budget allocations compared to the previous censuses.

2)    The 2024 Census cost K15.63 to enumerate one person while 2011 and 2000 censuses cost K23.00 and K28.00 respectively.

3)    The CPI comparative values of 2024, 2011 and 2000 budget allocations for the censuses answers the question of “What is the value of each census compared to their funding?”

4)    The Value of 2024 Census budget compared to 2011 Census is K87,138,376 or 105% lower than the 2011 Census budget. In other words, had NSO used the same plan as in 2011, it would have cost the Government K284,031,000 for the 2024 Census.

5)    The value of 2024 Census budget compared to 2000 Census is K 42,472,464 or 253% lower than the 2000 Census budget. In other words, had NSO used the same plan as in 2000, it would have cost the Government K512,096,500 for the 2024 Census.

6)    The 2024 Census was the cheapest and the most cost-effective operation compared to the previous censuses.

7)    The cost of the 2024 Census can also be compared to costs of hosting major events in the country which are not mandatory.